A few weeks ago I looked into the possible post split fixtures etc and I was astonished to find out the following;
Taking into consideration the top 5 favourites at the start of the season were Rangers, Celtic, Aberdeen, Hibs and Hearts.
- It is impossible for Celtic to get 8 home games against Rangers, Aberdeen, Hibs and Hearts. It will be 7 or less.
- It is impossible for Rangers to get 8 away games against Celtic, Aberdeen, Hibs and Hearts. it will be 7 or less.
There may be reasonable rationale for this in that Hearts weren't seeded but Livingston would be and if they replaced Hearts above it would still be the same. The only possible explanation I can see is that it is seeded but St Mirren are included in the top 6 seeding because although the finished 7th last season they had the same points and better goal difference than Livingston.
Rangers are due a 2nd away game versus Celtic, Hearts, Hibs, Aberdeen, Livingston, Dundee Utd and Motherwell, having played Ross County, St Johnstone and Dundee twice away already (and St Mirren twice after Sunday). Rangers will not get their 2nd away game against those 7 clubs mentioned above with only 3 of their post split fixtures being away from home.
Not a lucky year for Celtic in regards to post split fixtures.
This weekend sees the possibility of 7 clubs gaining the 3 remaining spots in the top 6;
- Dundee Utd have a 90% chance of being in the top 6 and they would need Ross County to win, Hibs to win and no draw in the Livingston v Motherwell game to not qualify for top 6.
- Motherwell have a 58% chance of being in the top 6 and they will make the top 6 if they win and they can also in some scenarios achieve top 6 even if they don't win.
- Livingston have a 47% chance and they need to win and hope that 2 of Dundee Utd, Hibs and Ross County don't win.
- Aberdeen have a 45% chance and simply need to win and hope Hibs don't win
- Hibs have a 37% chance and similar to Motherwell will guarantee top 6 if they win but can also still possibly obtain a top 6 place even if they lose.
- Ross County have a 21% chance who are not even guaranteed top 6 if they win but also could get top 6 even with a draw.
- St Mirren have a 2.75% chance and would have to beat Rangers and hope Livingston don't win, Hearts beat Hibs and Ross County and Aberdeen draw.
My preference would be for Celtic not to face Livingston and I would like Rangers to face Ross County (or St Mirren) as they are in their expected post split home games and would help the % chance of them still going to Hearts, Hibs, Dundee Utd, Aberdeen or Livingston as is planned.
My betting tip is Hibs at 6/4 as they have it in their own hands and they still also have a chance with a draw and even a defeat. A draw would be suffice if Ross County don't win. Hibs could also lose and if Aberdeen and Ross County draw, Livingston don't win and St Mirren don't win they would retain their top 6 finish.
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Tony@CelticTrends.com
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